AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Michigan’s state primaries

NEWAYGO, Mich. (AP) — While Michigan remains one of the crown jewels of the fall presidential campaign, the focus on Tuesday turns to state primaries that may play a major role in deciding control of the narrowly divided U.S. Senate and U.S. House as well as the state legislature.

Topping the list of contests is the race to replace Democratic U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow, who announced in January that she would not seek a fifth term. The Democratic primary features three-term U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin and actor and Detroit small business owner Hill Harper.

Slotkin has kept her Lansing-area swing district in Democratic hands by slim margins since her first election in 2018. She won her current 7th Congressional District with just shy of 52% of the vote in 2022, her largest vote share of her three campaigns. She won a similar district in 2018 and 2020 with less than 51% of the vote.

If she wins the primary as expected, she’ll face another tough contest against the likely Republican nominee, former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, who is looking to end his party’s 24-year drought in Michigan U.S. Senate races. The former House Intelligence Committee chairman and former CNN host launched his campaign in September and has since thinned the Republican primary field as the state’s party establishment has rallied behind him. Rogers’ remaining primary opponents include former U.S. Rep. Justin Amash, best known for voting to impeach President Donald Trump and for leaving the GOP to become an independent and then a Libertarian. Also running is Sherry O’Donnell, a physician and former congressional candidate.

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Slotkin enjoys a sizable financial advantage in the race. She has raised and banked more campaign funds than the rest of the Democratic and Republican fields combined.

Running to replace Slotkin in the 7th Congressional District are Democrat Curtis Hertel and Republican Tom Barrett, both former state senators. Both are uncontested for their parties’ nominations. Voters in the 7th District narrowly backed Republican Trump in 2016 and Democrat Joe Biden in 2020.

Other Michigan congressional seats that could decide control of the U.S. House in November are in the 3rd, 8th and 10th districts, all of which have contested primaries on Tuesday.

In the Grand Rapids-based 3rd District in Western Michigan, Republicans Paul Hudson and Michael Markey are vying for the nomination to challenge Democratic U.S. Rep. Hillary Scholten, who is favored in her primary. Democrat Hillary Clinton barely edged Trump among 3rd District voters in 2016, while Biden won more handily in 2020.

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In the 8th District, which includes Flint and Saginaw, three Democrats and three Republicans are running to replace Democratic U.S. Rep. Dan Kildee, who is not seeking a seventh term.

In the 10th District, which includes most of Macomb and part of Oakland counties in the northern Detroit suburbs, Democrat Carl Marlinga hopes for a rematch against first-term Republican U.S. Rep. John James, but he must first defeat three other candidates for his party’s nomination. James edged Marlinga in the 2022 election, 48.8% to 48.3%. Voters in the 10th District slightly preferred Trump in the 2016 and 2020 elections. Macomb is home to a type of key swing voters often referred to as Reagan Democrats.

Voters throughout the state will also choose nominees in 67 contested state House primaries. Democrats won a narrow majority of both chambers of the state legislature in the 2022 midterm elections. All 110 state House seats are at stake in November. State Senate seats will not be up for election until 2026.

Here’s a look at what to expect on Tuesday:

Primary day

Michigan’s state primary will be held Tuesday. The last polls close at 9 p.m. ET, although most of the state closes at 8 p.m. ET. All polls close at 8 p.m. local time.

What’s on the ballot

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for U.S. Senate, U.S. House and state House.

Who gets to vote

Michigan has an open primary system, which means any registered voter may participate in any party’s primary.

Decision notes

The key, vote-rich counties in statewide Michigan elections are Wayne (home to Detroit), Oakland, Macomb, Kent (home to Grand Rapids), Genesee (home to Flint) and Washtenaw (home to Ann Arbor).

In the Republican U.S. Senate primary, Rogers is the front-runner but may do particularly well in the areas he represented in Congress. That generally covered the Republican portions of Oakland County as well as the Republican areas roughly in between Detroit, Lansing and Flint. He lives in southwestern Michigan.

Detroit-area businessman Sandy Pensler withdrew from the race in July but will still appear on the ballot. He received 45% of the vote in the 2018 U.S. Senate primary against James. Pensler carried most of northern Michigan and the eastern third of the Upper Peninsula. His exit from the race should benefit Rogers, whom he endorsed.

The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Recounts are automatic in statewide races in Michigan if the margin between the top two candidates is 2,000 votes or fewer. Candidates may request and pay for a recount regardless of the vote margin, and the state covers the cost if the recount changes the outcome. State party chairs may request recounts for state legislative races if the margin is fewer than 500 votes in state Senate races and fewer than 200 votes in state House races. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome. A new recount law signed by Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer in July will not take effect until after the 2024 presidential election.

What do turnout and advance vote look like?

As of July 9, there were about 8.3 million registered voters in Michigan.

In the 2022 midterm primaries, turnout was about 12% of registered voters for the Democratic primary and 13% in the Republican primary. About 55% of voters in the 2022 midterm primaries and about 35% of voters in the 2024 presidential primaries were cast before primary day.

As of Thursday, a total of 870,2307 ballots had cast ballots before primary day.

How long does vote-counting usually take?

In the 2022 midterm primary, the AP first reported results at 8:13 p.m. ET, or 13 minutes after the first polls closed. The election night tabulation ended at 4:05 a.m. ET with about 96% of total votes counted.

Are we there yet?

As of Tuesday, there will be 91 days until the November general election.

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